Editor’s Note. In light of the current saber rattling between the U.S. and North Korea, this article by regular Contributor Tom Cranmer that was posted in the Fairfax Free Citizen on November 2, 2016, is most pertinent.
Once again, Americans will be surprised when a global war starts.
Surprises are not new to Americans: The Japanese attack at Pearl Harbor, the German takeover of small countries starting WWII, the Korean War, and even WWI. The next “surprise” global war is the event that would likely destroy our lives, families and the homeland. Yet, our politicians and the media are ignoring the gathering storm.
This was reported at the Association of the U.S. Army (AUSA) 2016 Annual Meeting on October 5, 2016.
In a global environment of rapid technological, societal, and demographic changes, the U.S. Army’s dominance is being challenged by a belligerent Russia and rising China, and war between nation states at some point in the future “is almost guaranteed” said Army Chief of Staff General Mark A. Milley.
“The homeland is less and less a sanctuary,” added Robert Salesses, deputy assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense integration and defense support of civil authorities at the AUSA meeting.
Marine Corps General Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, restated at the AUSA meeting:
the now-familiar ‘four-plus-one’ security challenge, presented by the four state powers: Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran; and the continuing threat of violent extremists.
North Korea. The US military’s publication Stars and Stripes reported on October 2, 2016:
The isolated communist country has conducted three nuclear tests on [Obama’s] watch, and it has nearly two dozen nuclear weapons by some estimates.
The North Koreans tested an engine for an ICBM (Inter Continental Ballistic Missile) in April of this year. On March 23, 2016, they successfully tested a second SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile).
On March 10, 2016 Admiral William Gortney, Commander, U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), briefed a Senate Committee:
It is prudent to assume Pyongyang has the ability to miniaturize a nuclear warhead and with an ICBM they can actually strike the continental U.S.
Vice Admiral J.D. Syring, USN, Director, Missile Defense Agency, said before the Senate Armed Services Committee, April 13, 2016:
In addition to the Taepo Dong 2 space launch vehicle/ICBM, North Korea is developing and has paraded the KN08 road-mobile ICBM and an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a range greater than 3,000 km. Last October North Korea paraded a previously unseen, new, or modified road-mobile ICBM. North Korea has recently assumed an aggressive posture, having conducted rocket and ballistic missile launches in addition to the launch of the Taepo Dong 2 space launch vehicle/ICBM this past February.
Twice a day North Korea’s two satellites pass over North America. They are capable of carrying a nuclear weapon that could cause a high-altitude explosion creating an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) that would destroy most of the electrical system in the continental U.S. and disable computers and other electronic equipment. Government estimates are that 9 out of 10 Americans in the affected area would die within a year (Blackout Wars, p. 27).EMP is the easiest way for an enemy to defeat the U.S. anonymously and cheaply. Just fire a missile from a submarine or barge in the Caribbean high in the sky. The U.S. has no missile defense on our south coast. Alternatively, explained by former CIA Director James Woolsey, a weather balloon could be used.
Even the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry clearly is worried about North Korea. On October 18, 2016, he said:
Make no mistake, any attack on America or our allies will not only be defeated, but any use of nuclear weapons will be met with an overwhelming and effective response.
The North Korean dictator is considered the least stable and rational leader of the belligerent states. He may be the most likely to attack the U.S. with EMP.
Once the U.S. is disabled with EMP, the rest of the world is likely to surrender.
Iran has successfully orbited satellites and announced plans to orbit a larger satellite using a space launch vehicle (the Simorgh) that could be capable of intercontinental ballistic missile ranges if configured as such (Vice Adm. J.D. Syring, USN, head of the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, disclosed in April 2016).
One of the Iranian nuclear facilities and all military bases are off-limits to inspectors. Iran has been practicing high altitude explosions and has a military doctrine of using EMP.
Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu said in an interview with Steve Forbes:
Given Iran’s history of aggression, I’d say that this double bonanza of a guaranteed pathway to a nuclear arsenal and a jackpot of money to continue its aggression actually makes the danger of war, even nuclear war, a lot greater.
Iran captured two of the U.S. Navy’s boats and their sailors and used them for propaganda. Their navy has been harassing our ships, without consequences. Their proxy in Yemen just sent multiple anti-ship missiles at our warships in the Red Sea and previously drove our embassy and CIA out of Yemen.
Iran celebrates every Friday as “Death to America. and Israel” day.
Who else threatens the U.S.?Russia. U.S. Army Deputy Chief of Staff Lieutenant-General Joseph Anderson said that the United States faces a real security threat “from modern nation-states acting aggressively in militarized competition. Does that sound like Russia?” That was quoted by the Russian news organization, TASS.
The U.K. Daily Mail reported on 13 October 2016:
Politicians and high-ranking figures are said to have received a warning from President Vladimir Putin to bring their loved-ones’ home to the ‘Motherland’, according to Russian media. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev has also warned that the world is at a ‘dangerous point’ due to rising tensions between Russia and the U.S.
Turkey’s deputy prime minister also said there is danger of a global war, per Samaa TV.
I called the Russia desk officer at the U.S. State Department and the Russian embassy for confirmation, but they refused to confirm or deny these reports, which usually means they are true.
VP Biden just dangerously declared a cyber war against Russia. Naturally the Russians will react and may have already with the recent widespread disabling of internet systems in the U.S.
Asia is the most critical region going to 2030 and beyond, and China’s rise cannot be paused (said Kathleen Hicks, at the AUSA conference).
She is a senior vice president and director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. China claims their territory extends 800 miles offshore into the South China Sea in areas that four other nations claim. The World Court denied China’s claim on July 12, 2016. China is ignoring it and is continuing to build military facilities on atolls around the South China Sea.
China informed the U.S. that it may not overfly or sail in their claimed area without permission. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has said they are preparing for war with the U.S.
Islamic State. The jihadists not only are trying to terrorize the West. They are trying to undermine and control publicity about their actions. This includes eliminating any negative information about them taught at FBI academies, in other law enforcement agencies, and the U.S. military.The Muslim Brotherhood’s (MB) Infiltration of the West on February 12, 2008, explained:
The current leader of the MB, Mohammad Mahdi Akef, called on its members to serve its global agenda, declaring ‘I have complete faith that Islam will invade Europe and America.’ On his Arabic website, Akef in February 2007 reassured his followers that ‘the Jihad will lead to smashing Western civilization and replacing it with Islam which will dominate the world. In the event Muslims cannot achieve this goal in the near future, Muslims are obliged to continue the Jihad that will cause the collapse of Western civilization and the ascendance of the Muslim civilization on its ruins.
This and similar Muslim Brotherhood’s statements are declarations of war.
Yet, members of the Muslim Brotherhood hold prominent positions in the U.S. Government, as documented by Trevor Loudon and others.
ISIS leaders have also said they are trying to populate Western nations with Muslims to control political power eventually. Muslim refugees, including ISIS operatives, have been flooding European nations, and unknown thousands of them have been allowed into the U.S.
Conclusion. The foregoing suggests global war involving the U.S. homeland appears to be more likely than in recent decades. Individual countries could trigger the war on their own or together. Recall how Germany, Italy, and Japan conspired to take over the world during WWII.
The main goal of all the hostile nations is to defeat or neutralize the U.S. The Russian government is said to have advised its citizens to stock up with at least 30 days of food and to identify the location of bomb shelters. Good advice.
The history of the failure of war can almost be summed up in two words: Too late.
• Too late in comprehending the deadly purpose of a potential enemy.
• Too late in realizing the mortal danger.
• Too late in preparedness.
• Too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance.
• Too late in standing with one’s friends.
(By General Douglas MacArthur, as quoted in Blackout Wars.)
With such threats in place and looming on the horizon, do you want a tough, resourceful fighter like Donald Trump protecting America’s interests, or a secretive, untrustworthy operative like Hillary Clinton whose public record demonstrates weak leadership instincts and results.
Relevant Addition to Author’s Background
Mr. Cranmer, a Yale and Columbia graduate, was a treasurer and international political and economic specialist for Mobil Oil Corp. He has been in, and identified issues concerning, Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. He spent most of his career in the Middle East, most recently as manager of oil, gas, and electricity reconstruction operations in Iraq for the State Department. He studied seven languages, including Arabic and Iranian Farsi in a mosque in India while with the State Department.